... cause1
Let suppose to have 3 causes, and let be $N_1$,$N_2$ and $N_3$ the generated number of events, with the luminosity L$_1$,L$_2$ and L$_3$, respectively. The initial probability can be chosen in the following way, normalised to the data, for example:
\begin{displaymath}
N_{tot} = {\cal L}_{data} \sum_i \frac{N_i}{{\cal L}_i} \;\...
...\cal L}_i} \frac{{\cal L}_{data}}{N_{tot}}
= \sum_i P_o(C_i)
\end{displaymath} (5)

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