Columbo's priors versus jury's priors

Going back to Columbo's episode, the prior of interest here is the probability that Peter Galesco killed his wife, taking into account `all' pieces of evidence but those deriving from the last scene.

It is interesting to observe how probabilities change as the story goes on. Different characters develop different opinions, depending on their previous experience, on the information they get and on their capability to process the information quickly. Also each spectator forms his/her own opinion, although all of them get virtually the same `external' pieces of information (that however are combined with internal pre-existing ones, whose combination and rapidity of combination depend on many other internal things and environmental conditions) - and this is part of the fun of watching a thriller with friends.


Giulio D'Agostini 2010-09-30