Probabilità e Incertezza di Misura
lezioni per il Dottorato di Ricerca in Fisica (30o Ciclo)
(G. D'Agostini)

Il corso sarà di 40 ore, con inizio a 20 gennaio 2015.

Programma

Modalità di esame

Visto il numero di ore e tenendo conto di una specifica richiesta di Roma 3, l'esame consiste in due verifiche:
  1. una verifica scritta su una sottoparte del corso (valida dal 26.mo al 29.mo ciclo e soggetta a cambiamento): /dott-prob_26/programma_scritto.html)
  2. una presentazione sotto forma seminariale su tema concordato, che prevedano possibilmente, ma non necessariamente, sviluppo/utilizzo di programmi per risolvere problemi pratici o basati su toy model.

Further details

Note: in the case of low mark in the written exam, some additional work will be required (typically an extra topic to present), obviously depending somehow on the mark (but the is no strict rule).

Date esami


Orario

Nr.Giorno OrarioAula
1Mar 20/01 14:00-16:00Rasetti
2Mer 21/01 16:00-18:002
3Mar 27/01 14:00-16:002
4Lun 2/02 17:00-18:00Rasetti
5Mer 4/02 17:00-18:00Rasetti
6Ven 6/02 14:00-16:00Rasetti
7Lun 9/02 16:00-18:00Rasetti
8Mer 11/02 16:00-18:00Rasetti
9Ven 13/02 14:00-16:00Rasetti
10Lun 23/02 16:00-18:00Rasetti
11Ven 27/02 14:00-16:00Rasetti
12Lun 2/03 16:00-18:00Rasetti
13Lun 9/03 16:00-18:00Rasetti
14Gio 12/03 13:00-15:00Rasetti
15Lun 16/03 16:00-18:00Rasetti
16Gio 19/03 11:00-13:00Aula Riunioni ATLAS
17Ven 20/03 14:00-16:00Rasetti
18Lun 23/03 16:00-18:00Rasetti
19Ven 27/03 14:00-16:00Rasetti
20Lun 30/03 16:00-18:00Rasetti

Dettaglio degli argomenti delle lezioni

Lezione 1 (20/1/15)
Introduction to the course:  
Lezione 2 (21/1/15)
Introduction (continued) Further readings ... and more (first week)  
Lezione 3 (27/1/15)
Continuing the critical introduction. Reference, further readings ... and more  
Lezione 4 (2/2/15)
Comments about "Fisichetta" methods − restarting. References, further readings... and more  
Lezione 5 (4/2/15)
Probability of causes, probability of effects: A toy experiment. References, further readings... and more  
Lezione 6 (6/2/15)
Beliefs, probabilities and formal probability theory. References, further readings... and more  
Lezione 7 (9/2/15)
Rules of probabilities, probability distributions. References, further readings... and more  
Lezione 8 (11/2/15)
Probability distributions (+ comments on basic issues of probability)  
Lezione 9 (13/2/15)
Probability distributions. Important theorems. References Exercise for the "vacation" week  
Lezione 10 (23/2/15)
Multidimensional pdf's. Some important theorems. Propagation of uncertainties.  
Lezione 11 (27/2/15)
More on transformation of variables. Monte Carlo. Beginning probabilistic inference References, further readings... and more

[See previous years]  
 
Lezione 12 (2/3/15)
Linearization. Multivariate distributions. Inference. References, further readings... and more

[See previous years]  
 
Lezione 13 (9/3/15)
Inference, inference, inference (and prediction....) References, further readings... and more
[See previous years]
 
 
Lezione 14 (12/3/15)
Parametric inference: binomial and Poisson model. References, further readings... and more
[See previous years]
Lezione 15 (16/3/15)
Parametric inference: Gaussian model.  
References, further readings... and more
[See previous years]  
Lezione 16 (19/3/15)
More on inference. Systematics. Bayesian networks.  
Lezione 17 (20/3/15)
Applications of probability theory in data analysis.  
References, further readings... and more
[See previous years]  
Lezione 18 (23/3/15)
Fits  
References, further readings... and more
[See previous years]  
Lezione 19 (27/3/15)
Least square fits. MCMC applied to inferential/predictive problems  
References, further readings... and more
[See previous years, in particular Lezioni 20-21, 22.mo ciclo ]
Lezione 20 (30/3/15)
Last (but not least) issues  
References, further readings... and more

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