Inferring
from the observed number of positives in the sample
Let us finally move to the probabilistic inference of the proportion
of infected individuals,
, based on the number of positives
in a sample of size
and given our best knowledge of the
performance of the test, all summarized in the graphical
model of Fig.
,
Figure:
Graphical model of Fig.
,
re-drawn in order to emphasize its inferential use and
including the commands to build up the JAGS model. `
',
left open in this diagram, stands for the prior distribution of
.
 |
which differs from that of Fig.
only for the symbol `
' moved
from node
(now `unobserved') to node
(now `observed').
The diagram contains also the probabilistic and deterministic
relations among the nodes, written directly using the
JAGS language.45
Subsections