Next: About this document ...
Up: Bayesian Reasoning in High
Previous: Bibliographic note
Contents

 1
 DIN Deutsches Institut für Normung,
``Grunbegriffe der Messtechnick  Behandlung
von Unsicherheiten bei der Auswertung von Messungen''
(DIN 1319 Teile 14),
Beuth Verlag GmbH, Berlin, Germany, 1985.
Only parts 13
are published in English. An English translation
of part 4 can be requested from the authors of Ref. [23].
Part 3 is going to be rewritten in order to be made in agreement
with Ref. [3] (private communication from K. Weise).
 2
 R. Kaarls, BIPM proc.Verb. Com. Int.
Poids et Mesures 49 (1981), A1A2 (in French);
P. Giacomo, Metrologia 17 (1981) 73 (draft of
English version; for the official BIPM translation see Refs. [3] or [5]).
 3
 International Organization for Standardization (ISO),
``Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement'',
Geneva, Switzerland, 1993.
 4
 International Organization for Standardization (ISO),
``International vocabulary of basic and general terms in
metrology'',
Geneva, Switzerland, 1993.
 5
 B.N. Taylor and C.E. Kuyatt,
``Guidelines for evaluating and expressing
uncertainty of NIST measurement results'', NIST Technical Note 1297,
September 1994;
(www: http://physics.nist.gov/Pubs/guidelines/outline.html).
 6
 H. Poincaré, ``Science and Hypothesys'', 1905
(Dover Publications, 1952).
 7
 H. Poincaré, ``Calcul des probabilités'', University of Paris, 189394.
 8
 C. Howson and P. Urbach, ``Bayesian reasoning in science'',
Nature, Vol. 350, 4 April 1991, p. 371.
 9
 M.J. Schervish,
`` values: what they are and what they
are not'', Am. Stat. 50 (1996) 203.
 10
 J.O. Berger and D.A. Berry, ``Statistical analysis and the
illusion of objectivity'', American Scientist 76 (1988) 159.
 11
 B. de Finetti, ``Theory of probability'',
J. Wiley & Sons, 1974.
 12
 Baklawsky, Cerasoli and Rota, ``Introduzione alla Probabilità'',
Unione Matematica Italiana, 1984.
 13
 http://www.desy.de/prinfo/desyrecentheraresultsfeb97_e.html
(``DESY Science Information on Recent HERA Results'',
Feb. 19, 1997).
 14

DESY'98  Highlights from the DESY Research Center,
``Throwing `heads' seven times in a row 
what if it was just a statistical
fluctuation?''.
 15
 ZEUS Collaboration, J. Breitweg et al., ``Comparison of
ZEUS data with Standard Model predictions for
scattering at high and '',
Z. Phys. C74 (1997) 207;
H1 Collaboration, C. Adloff et al.,
``Observation of events at very high in
collisions at HERA'', Z. Phys. C74 (1997) 191.
 16

I. Kant, ``Prolegomena to any future metaphysics'', 1783.
 17

A. Einstein, ``Autobiographisches'', in ``Albert Einstein:
PhilosopherScientist'', P.A. Schilpp ed., Library of Living
Philosophers, Tudor, Evanston, Ill., 1949, pp. 295.
 18

A. Einstein,
``Über die spezielle und die allgemeine
Relativitätstheorie (gemeinverständlich)'', Vieweg, Braunschweig, 1917.
Translation: The special and the general Theory.
A popular exposition, London Methuen 1946.
 19
 J.M. Bernardo, A.F.M. Smith,
``Bayesian theory'', John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 1994.
 20

D. Hume, ``Enquiry concerning human understanding'' (1748),
see, e.g.,
http://www.utm.edu/research/hume/wri/1enq/1enq6.htm,.
 21

G. D'Agostini, ``Teaching statistics in the physics
curriculum: unifying and clarifying role of subjective
probability'', contribution in the
theme issue of the American Journal
of Physics on statistical physics, 1999.
 22

G. D'Agostini, ``Overcoming priors anxiety'',
to be published in the monoghaphic issue
of the Revista de la Real Academia de Ciencias
on Bayesian Methods in the Sciences, J.M. Bernardo editor,
physics/9906048.
 23
 K. Weise, W. Wöger,
``A Bayesian theory of measurement uncertainty'',
Meas. Sci. Technol., 4 (1993) 1.
 24

H. O. Lancaster, ``The Chisquared Distribution'', John
Wiley & Sons Ltd, 1969.
 25

P. Astone and G. D'Agostini, ``Inferring the intensity of
Poisson processes at the limit of the detector sensitivity
(with a case study on gravitational wave burst search)'',
paper in preparation.
 26

G. D'Agostini and G. Degrassi, ``Constraints on the Higgs boson
mass from direct searches and precision measurements'',
DFPD99/TH/02 (Univ. of Padua),
hepph/9902226.
 27

G. D'Agostini, ``Probability and measurement uncertainty
in Physics  a Bayesian primer'', Internal Report N. 1070
of the Dept. of Physics
of the Rome University ``La Sapienza'', and DESY95242, December 1995.
hepph/9512295.
 28

B. de Finetti, ``Probabilità'', entry for Enciclopedia Einaudi,
1980.
 29
 H. Jeffreys, ``Theory of probability'', Oxford
University Press, 1961.
 30
 R. L. Winkler,
``An introduction to Bayesian inference and decision'',
Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc., 1972.
 31
 S. J. Press,
``Bayesian statistics: principles, models, and applications'',
John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 1989.
 32

R. Scozzafava, ``La probabilità soggettiva e le sue
applicazioni'', Masson, Editoriale Veschi, Roma, 1993.
 33
 Particle Data Group, C. Caso et al.,
``Review of particle properties'',
Phys. Rev. D50 (1994) 1173.
 34
 New Scientist, April 28 1995, pag. 18 (``Gravitational
constant is up in the air''). The data
of Table are from H. Meyer's DESY seminar,
June 28 1995.
 35

P. Watzlawick, J.H. Weakland and R. Fisch,
``Change: principles of problem formation and problem resolution'',
W.W. Norton, New York, 1974.
 36

D.C. Knill and W. Richards (eds.), ``Perception as Bayesian Inference'',
Cambridge University Press, 1996.
 37
 P.L. Galison, ``How experiments end'', The University of Chicago Press,
1987.
 38
 G. D'Agostini, ``Limits on electron compositeness from the
Bhabha scattering at PEP and PETRA'',
Proceedings of the
XXVth
Rencontre de Moriond on ``Z Physics'',
Les Arcs (France), March 411, 1990, p. 229 (also DESY90093).
 39
 A.K. Wróblewski, ``Arbitrariness in the development of physics'',
afterdinner talk at the International Workshop on
Deep Inelastic Scattering and Related Subjects, Eilat, Israel,
611 February 1994, Ed. A. Levy (World Scientific, 1994), p. 478.
 40
 C.E. Shannon, ``A mathematical theory of communication'',
Bell System Tech. J 27 (1948) 379, 623. Reprinted in the
Mathematical Theory of Communication (C.E. Shannon
and W. Weaver), Univ. Illinois Press, 1949.
 41
 E.T. Jaynes, ``Information theory and statistical mechanics'',
Phys. Rev. 106 (1957) 620.
 42

M. Tribus, ``Rational descriptions, decisions and designs'',
Pergamon Press, 1969.
 43

W.H. Press, ``Understanding data better with Bayesian and global
statistical methods'',
Conference on Some Unsolved Problems in Astrophysics,
Princeton, NJ, 2729 Apr 1995, astroph/9604126.
 44

V. Dose and W. von der Linden,
``Outlier tolerant parameter estimation'',
Proc. of the XVIII International Workshop
on Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods, Garching (Germany), July 1998,
V. Dose, W. von der Linden, R. Fischer, and R. Preuss, eds,
Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 1999.
(preprint in http://www.ipp.mpg.de/OP/Datenanalyse/Publications/bib/node1.html.)
 45

G. D'Agostini, ``Uncertainty due to systematics in
linear and next to linear approximation'', paper in preparation.
 46
 Particle Data Group, C. Caso et al., Eur. Phys. J.
C3 (1998) 1 (http://pdg.lbl.gov/).
 47
 G. D'Agostini, ``On the use of the covariance matrix to fit correlated
data'', Nucl. Instrum. Methods. A346 (1994) 306.
 48
 CELLO Collaboration, H.J. Behrend et al.,
``Determination of and
from measurements
of total hadronic cross section in annihilation'',
Phys. Lett.
183B (1987) 400.
 49

G. D'Agostini, ``Determination of
and
from
measurements at PEP and PETRA'', Proceedings of
XXIIth Rencontre de Moriond on ``Hadrons, Quarks and Gluons'',
Les Arcs, France, March 1525, 1987.
 50
 S. Chiba and D.L. Smith, ''Impacts of data transformations
on leastsquare solutions and their significance in data analysis and
evaluation'',
J. Nucl. Sc. Tech. 31 (1994) 770.
 51
 M. L. Swartz, ``Reevaluation of the hadronic contribution
to
'', hepph/9509248,
Phys. Rev. D53 (1996) 5268.
 52
 T. Takeuchi, ``The status of the determination of
and
'',
hepph/9603415, Prog. Theor. Phys. Suppl.
123 (1996) 247.
 53

G. D'Agostini, ``Use and misuse of covariance matrix
to fit correlated data'', seminar at University of Toronto,
March 8, 1999, paper in preparation.
 54
 V. Blobel, ``Unfolding methods in high energy physics experiments'',
Proceedings of the ``1984 CERN School of Computing'',
Aiguablava, Catalonia, Spain, 912 September 1984,
Published by CERN, July 1985, pp. 88127.
 55
 G. Zech, ``Comparing statistical data to Monte Carlo simulation 
parameter fitting and unfolding'', DESY 95113, June 1995.
 56
 G. D'Agostini, ``A multidimensional unfolding method based on
Bayes' theorem'', Nucl. Instrum. Methods A362 (1995) 487.
 57
 K. Weise, ``Mathematical foundation of an analytical
approach to Bayesian Monte Carlo spectrum unfolding'',
Physicalish Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig, BTBN24,
July 1995.
 58
 G. Cowan, ``Statistical data analysis'', Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1998.
 59

B. Buck and V.A. Macauly (eds.), ``Maximum Entropy in action'',
Oxford University Press, 1991.
 60

G.J. Feldman and R.D. Cousins, ``Unified approach to the classical
statistical analysis of small signal'', Phys. Rev. D57 (1998) 3873,
1998.
 61

G. Polya, ``Mathematics and plausible reasoning'', Volume II:
Patterns of plausible inference, Princeton University Press, 1968.
 62

R. von Mises, ``Probability, Statistics, and Truth'',
Allen and Unwin, 1957.
 63

D.A. Berry, ``Teaching elementary Bayesian statistics with
real applications in science'',
Am. Stat. 51 (1997) 241;
J. Albert, ``Teaching Bayes' rule: a dataoriented approach'',
ibid., p. 247.
D.S. Moore, ``Bayes for beginners? Some reasons to hesitate'',
ibid., p. 254.
Pages 262272 contain five discussions plus replies.
 64

See e.g. Y.L. Dokshitzer,
``DIS 96/97. Theory/Developments'', hepph/9706375,
Proc. 5th International Workshop on Deep Inelastic Scattering and QCD,
Chicago, April 1997; AIP Conf. Proc. 407, J. Repond and
D. Krakauer eds.
 65

See e.g. G. Altarelli, ``The status of the Standard Model'', talk at
18th International Symposium on LeptonPhoton Interactions,
Hamburg, August 1997,
CERNTH97278, Oct. 1997, hepph/9710434.
 66

R. Feynman, ``The character of the physical law'',
The MIT Press, 1967 (first published in 1965 by
The British Broadcasting Corporation).
 67

G. Zech, ``Objections to the unified approach to the
computation of classical confidence limits'',
physics/9809035.
 68

R.D. Cousins, ``Why isn't every physicist a Bayesian?'',
Am. J. Phys. 63 (1995) 398.
 69

See, e.g, J. Pearl, ``Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems:
networks of plausible inference'', Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, 1988.
F.V. Jensen, ``An introduction to Bayesian networks'',
UCL Press Ltd (and Springer Verlag), 1996.
D. Heckerman and M.P. Wellman, ``Bayesian Networks'',
Communications of the ACM (Association for Computing Machinery),
Vol. 38, No. 3, March 1995, p. 27.
L. Burnell and E. Horvitz, ``Structure and chance: melding logic and
probability for software debugging'', ibid., p. 31.
R. Fung and B. Del Favero, ``Applying Bayesian networks to
Information retrieval'', ibid., p. 42.
D. Heckerman, J.S. Breese and K. Rommelse,
``Decisiontheoretic troubleshooting'',
ibid., p. 49.
Some interesting URLs on Bayesian networks are:
http://hugin.dk/
http://www.auai.org/
http://en.afit.af.mil/ai/
http://bayes.stat.washington.edu/almond/belief.html.
 70

See e.g. the Los Angeles Times article reported in
http://hugin.dk/latbn.html.
 71

A. de Rujula, ``Snapshots of the 1985 high energy physics
panorama'', Proc. of the
International Europhysics Conference on HighEnergy Physics, Bari (Italy),
July 1995, L. Nitti and G. Preparata eds.
 72

G. Salvini, Welcome address to the International Workshop
on Deep Inelastic Scattering and related phenomena,
Roma (Italy), April 1996; World Scientific, 1997,
G. D'Agostini and A. Nigro eds.
 73

B. Efron, ``Why isn't everyone a Bayesian?'',
Am. Stat. 40 (1986) 1 (with comments on pages 611).
 74

D.V. Lindley, ``Comment'' to Ref. [73],
Am. Stat. 40 (1986) 6.
 75

A. Zellner, ``Bayesian solution to a problem posed by Efron'',
Am. Stat. 40 (1986) 330.
 76

B. Efron, reply to Ref. [75], Am. Stat. 40 (1986) 331.
 77

G. Gabor (gabor@is.dal.ca), private communication.
 78

J.M. Bernardo, ``Noninformative priors do not exist'',
J. Stat. Plan. and Inf. 65 (1997) 159, including
discussions by D.R. Cox, A.P. Dawid, J.K. Ghosh and D. Lindley,
pp. 177189.
 79

E.T. Jaynes, ``Probability theory: the logic of science'',
book in preparation, see
http://omega.albany.edu:8008/JaynesBook.html.
 80

F. Lad, ``Operational subjective statistical methods 
a mathematical, philosophical, and historical introduction'',
J. Wiley & Sons, 1996.
 81

P. Cook and L.D. Broemeling, ``Bayesian statistics using Mathematica'',
Am. Stat. 49 (1995) 70.
 82

P. Desuredt, I. Lemahieu and K. Thielemans,
``A Mathematica package for symbolic Bayesian
calculation'', Proc. Workshop MaxEnt 1993,
Santa Barbara (USA), 1993.
For code and other references, see
``BayesCalc'' in http://omega.albany.edu:8008/.
 83

G. D'Agostini, ``Contact interaction scale from DIS events
 what do the data teach us?'', ZEUS note, 98079, November 1998.
 84

ZEUS Collaboration, ``Search for contact
interactions in deep inelastic
scattering at HERA'', hepex/9905035.
 85

ALEPH, DELPHI, L3 and OPAL Collaborations,
``Lower bound for the Standard Model Higgs boson mass
from combining the results of the four LEP experiments'',
CERNEP/98046, April 1, 1998.
 86
 A. O'Hagan, ``Bayesian Inference'', Vol. 2B
of Kendall's advanced theory of statistics (Halsted Press,
1994).
 87

C. Howson and P. Urbach, ``Scientific reasoning  the Bayesian
approach'', Open Court, 1993 (second edition).
 88

J. Earman, ``Bayes or bust? A critical examination of Bayesian
confirmation theory'', The MIT Press, 1992.
 89

M. Kaplan, ``Decision theory as philosophy'', Cambridge University
Press, 1996.
 90

B. de Finetti, ``Filosofia della probabilità'',
il Saggiatore, 1995.
 91

L. Piccinato, ``Metodi per le decisioni statistiche'', SpringerItalia,
1996.
 92

D. Costantini e P. Monari (eds.),
``Probabilità e giochi d'azzardo'', Franco Muzzio Editore, 1996.
 93

G.E.P. Box and G.C. Tiao, ``Bayesian inference in
statistical analysis'', John Wiley and Sons, 1973.
 94

J.O. Berger, ``Statistical decision theory and
Bayesian analysis'', Springer, 1985.
 95

A. Gelman, J.B. Carlin, H.S. Stern and D.B. Rubin,
``Bayesian data analysis'', Chapman & Hall, 1995.
 96

A. O'Hagan, ``Probability: methods and measurements'',
Chapman & Hall, 1988.
 97

P.M. Lee, ``Bayesian statistics  an introduction'',
John Wiley and Sons, 1997.
 98

C.P. Robert, ``The Bayesian choice: a decisiontheoretic
motivation'', Springer, 1994.
 99

L.J. Savage et al., ``The foundations of statistical inference:
a discussion'', Methuen, 1962.
 100

A. Zellner, ``Bayesian analysis in econometrics and statistics'',
Eduard Elgar, 1997.
 101

D.S. Sivia, ``Data analysis  a Bayesian tutorial'',
Clarendon Press, Oxford University Press, 1997.
 102

J.M. Bernardo et al., Valencia Meetings on ``Bayesian Statistics'' 16, see details in
http://www.uv.es/bernardo/valenciam.html.
 103

International Workshops
on Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods (18 editions till 1998),
proceedings often published by
Kluwer Academic Publishers.
See also: http://omega.albany.edu:8008/maxent.html
 104

http://www.bayesian.org/
http://bayes.stat.washington.edu/bayes_people.html
http://www.artiste.com/blip.html
http://www.strauss.lanl.gov/Welcome.html
http://fourier.dur.ac.uk:8000/stats/bayeslin/
http://astrosun.tn.cornell.edu/staff/loredo/bayes/.
 105

W.R. Gillks, S. Richardson and D.J. Spiegelhalter
``Markov Chain Monte Carlo in practice'', Chapman and Hall, 1996.
 106

M. Raso, ``Measurement of from the 1995 shifted vertex data'', ZEUSNote
96132 (report based on the Tesi di Laurea, University of Rome ``La Sapienza'', October
1996); ``An update of the analysis using the 1995 shifted vertex
data'', ZEUSNote 98074; ``A measurement of the
for
GeV as a byproduct of the measurement'' ZEUSNote 98075.
 107

G. D'Agostini, ``Bayesian reasoning versus conventional statistics
in high energy physics'',
Proc. XVIII International Workshop
on Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods, Garching (Germany), July 1998,
V. Dose, W. von der Linden, R. Fischer, and R. Preuss, eds,
Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 1999,
physics/9811046.
Giulio D'Agostini
20030515