In summary, these are
our reasonable beliefs that a person would have behaved
that way producing that sequence of actions (),
depending on whether he was a killer () or not (
maintaining or not self-control (/
Given this scenario, the `probabilistic inversion'
is rather easy, as only one hypothesis remains possible:
that of a killer, who even had lost self-control.
this is the main point, that makes the hypothesis
innocent definitely impossible.
a cool murderer would have never reacted that way.
this is the only hypotheses that can explain the action.
Here `' stands for `not impossible', although not necessarily
Let us say that, if Columbo
had planned his stratagem, based on a bluff,
he knew there were some chances Galesco could reacted
that way, but he could not be sure about