Recap of the section

This section had the purpose of introducing the so-called Bayesian reasoning (that is, in reality, nothing more than just probabilistic reasoning) with an aseptic, simple example, that shows however the ingredients needed to update our opinion on the light of new observations. At this point the role of the priors and of the evidence in forming our opinion about the hypotheses of interest should be clear. Note also how I have used on purpose several expressions to mean essentially the same thing, expressions that involve words such as `probability', `belief', `plausibility', `credibility', `confidence', and so on.

Giulio D'Agostini 2010-09-30