Then a new virtual lottery is proposed, with
a prize associated to the extraction of White from
either box. Is it preferable to
choose B or B
? That is, is there any special reason to
opt for either box?
This time
the answer is not always unanimous and depends on the audience.
Scientists, including PhD students,
tend to consider - but there are practically always exceptions! -
the outcomes equally probable and therefore they say there
is no rational reason to prefer either box.
But in other contexts, including
seminars to people who have jobs of high responsibility,
there is a sizable proportion, often the majority,
of those who definitely prefer B
(and, by the way,
they had already stated, or accepted without objections, that
Black and White were equally likely also from this box!)
The fun starts in case (practically always) when there are people
in the audience having shown
a strong preference in favor of B, and later I change
the winning color. For example, I say, just for the sake of entertainment, that the prize in case of White was supposed to be
offered by the host of the seminar. But since I prefer black,
as I am usually dressed that way,
I will pay for the prize, but attaching it to Black.
As you can guess,
those who showed indifference between B
and B
keep their opinion (and stare at me in a puzzled way).
But, curiously, also those who had previously chosen with
full conviction B
stick to it.
The behavior of the latter is quite irrational
(I can understand one can have strange reasons to consider White more likely from
, but for
the same reason he/she should consider Black more likely from
) but so common that it even has a name, the Ellsberg paradox.
(Fortunately the kind of people attending my seminars
repent quite soon, because they are easily
convinced - this is the simplest explanation -
that, after all,
the initial situation with
is absolutely equivalent to
an extraction at random out of 15 Black and 15 White, the fact that
the 30 balls are clustered in boxes being irrelevant.)