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- 1
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Discovery News, What Has the Tevatron Really Discovered?,
April 7 2011,
http://news.discovery.com/space/what-has-the-tevatron-really-discovered-110407.html
- 2
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The New York Times, At Particle Lab, a Tantalizing
Glimpse Has Physicists Holding Their Breaths, April 5 2011,
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/06/science/06particle.html
- 3
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A. Saini, Probably guilty: Bad mathematics
means rough justice, nr. 2731, 24 October 2009, pp. 42-45,
http://www.newscientist.com/issue/2731.
- 4
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A. Saini, A formula for justice,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/law/2011/oct/02/
formula-justice-bayes-theorem-miscarriage;
N. Fenton, Science and law: Improve statistics in court,
Nature 479 (2011) 36â37,
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v479/n7371/full/479036a.html;
Bayes and the Law, https://sites.google.com/site/bayeslegal/home.
- 5
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G. D'Agostini, A defense of Columbo
(and of the use of Bayesian inference in forensics):
A multilevel introduction to probabilistic reasoning,
http://arxiv.org/abs/1003.2086.
- 6
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G. D'Agostini, Bayesian reasoning in data analysis -
a critical introduction, World Scientific 2003.
- 7
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http://www.roma1.infn.it/~dagos/dott-pg/
- 8
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Methods of Analysis for Physics in Space, Earth and Sea,
MAPSES 2011, Lecce, Italy, 23-25 November 2011,
http://mapses.le.infn.it/
http://www.roma1.infn.it/~dagos/dott-pg/MAPSES-2011/
- 9
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CDF Collaboration, T. Aaltonen, et al,
Invariant Mass Distribution of Jet Pairs Produced in Association with a W boson in p
Collisions at
TeV,
Phys.Rev.Lett.106:171801,2011
(preprint http://arxiv.org/abs/1104.0699).
- 10
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http://vmsstreamer1.fnal.gov/Lectures/WC/110406Cavaliere/index.htm
- 11
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value
- 12
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Fermilab Today, The data peak that causes excitement,
April 7, 2011,
http://www.fnal.gov/pub/today/archive_2011/today11-04-07_CDFpeakresult.html
- 13
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J. Butterworth, The Tevatron goes bump,
Blob `Life and Physics', hosted by the Guardian, 9 April 2011,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/life-and-physics/2011/apr/09/1
- 14
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G. D'Agostini, From Observations to Hypotheses: Probabilistic Reasoning Versus Falsificationism and its Statistical Variations, 2004 Vulcano Workshop on Frontier Objects in Astrophysics and Particle Physics, Vulcano (Italy),
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0412148
- 15
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D. Hume, A Treatise of Human Nature, 1739;
An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, 1748.
- 16
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P.S. Laplace, Théorie analytique des probabilités, 1812;
- 17
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P.S. Laplace, Essai philosophique sur les probabilités, 1814,
http://books.google.it/books?id=JrEWAAAAQAAJ(the English quotes in this paper are taken from A.I. Dale's translation,
Springer-Verlag, 1995).
- 18
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G. D'Agostini and G. Degrassi, Constraints on the Higgs Boson Mass from Direct Searches and Precision Measurements,
Eur. Phys. J. C10 (1999) 663-675,
http://www.springerlink.com/content/101160/
(http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/9902226).
- 19
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H. Poincaré, ``Science et Hypothèse'', 1905.
- 20
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G. D'Agostini, ``Bayesian reasoning versus conventional statistics
in high energy physics'',
Proc. XVIII International Workshop
on Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods, Garching (Germany), July 1998,
V. Dose et al. eds.,
Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 1999
(http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/9811046).
- 21
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A.L. Read, Modified frequentist analysis of search results
(the CL
s method), 1st Workshop on Confidence Limits, CERN, Geneva,
17-18 Jan 2000, http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/411537?ln=en.
- 22
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I.J. Good, Probability and the weighing of Evidence,
Charles Griffin and Co., 1950.
- 23
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http://www.roma1.infn.it/~dagos/ci_calc.html
- 24
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E. Kant, Critique of Pure Reason, 1871,
(Part VIII of the 1929 Norman Kemp Smith translation,
e-text available at http://www.hkbu.edu.hk/~ppp/cpr/dmeth.html).
- 25
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B. de Finetti, ``Theory of probability'',
J. Wiley & Sons, 1974.
- 26
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E. Schrödinger, The foundation of the theory of probability - I,
Proc. R. Irish Acad. 51A (1947) 51.
- 27
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http://xkcd.com/955/
- 28
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The Opera Collaboration, T. Adam et al.,
Measurement of the neutrino velocity
with the OPERA detector in the CNGS beam,
http://arxiv.org/abs/1109.4897.
- 29
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T. Bayes, ``An assay towards solving a problem in the doctrine
of chances'', Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc., 53 (1763) 370
http://rstl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/53/370.full.pdf
- 30
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The New York Times, `Tantalizing Hints' but No Direct
Proof in Particle Search, December 13 2011,
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/14/science/tantalizing-hints-but-no-direct-proof-in-search-for-higgs-boson.html
- 31
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http://indico.cern.ch/conferenceDisplay.py?confId=164890
Giulio D'Agostini
2012-01-02