Using the expressions of subsection
2.4, a Bayes factor of 13 corresponds to
JL
, that, added to initial leanings
of
(Colombo)
and
(jury), could lead to
combined JL's of
or
in the two cases.
However, although such a small weight of evidence is not enough, by itself, to condemn a person, I do not agree that ``that kind of evidence would never stand up in court''[1] for the reasons expounded in section 3.4.
Nevertheless, my main point in this paper is not that even such a modest piece of evidence should stand up in court (provided it is not the only one), but rather that the weight of evidence provided by the rash Galesco's act is not 1.1, but much higher, infinitely higher.
Giulio D'Agostini 2010-09-30