In summary, these are
our reasonable beliefs that a person would have behaved
that way producing that sequence of actions (
),
depending on whether he was a killer (
) or not (
),
maintaining or not self-control (
/
):
-

- :
this is the main point, that makes the hypothesis
innocent definitely impossible.
-

- :
a cool murderer would have never reacted that way.
-

- :
this is the only hypotheses that can explain the action.
Here `
' stands for `not impossible', although not necessarily
`very probable'34.
Let us say that, if Columbo
had planned his stratagem, based on a bluff,
he knew there were some chances Galesco could reacted
that way, but he could not be sure about
it.
Given this scenario, the `probabilistic inversion'
is rather easy, as only one hypothesis remains possible:
that of a killer, who even had lost self-control.
Giulio D'Agostini
2010-09-30