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Bayes' theorem is not all

Finally, I would like to recall that Bayes' theorem is a very important tool, but it can be used only when the scheme of prior, likelihood, and final is set up, and the distributions are properly normalized.8.21This happens very often in measurement uncertainty problems, but less frequently in other applications, such as assessing the probabilities of hypotheses. When Bayes' theorem is not applicable, conclusions may become strongly dependent on individuals and the only guidance remains the normative rule of the hypothetical coherent bet.

Giulio D'Agostini 2003-05-15