Clearly, this is not what a scientist (as well as everybody else) wants. Otherwise, if one is just happy to make statements that are e.g. 95% of times correct, there is no need to waste time and money making experiments: just state 95% of times something that it is practically certainly true and the remaining 5% something that is practically certainly false.``Carry out your experiment, calculate the confidence interval, and(J. Neyman, 1941, cited in Ref.[22])statethat belong to this interval. If you are asked whether you `believe' that belongs to the confidence interval you must refuse to answer. In the long run your assertions, if independent of each other, will be right in approximately a proportion of cases.''

Put in other terms, if what you want is a quantitative
assessment of how much you have to be confident on something,
on the basis of the information available to you,
then use a framework of reasoning that deals with probabilities.
The fact that probabilities might be be difficult to
be precisely assessed in quantitative terms does not justify
the fact that *you calculate something else and then
use it as if it were a probability.*
For example, on the basis
of the evaluated probability you might want to take *decisions*,
that is essentially making *bets of several kinds*,
that for example might be,
sticking to particle physics activity: how much emphasis you want
to give to a `bump' (just send a student to show it
in a conference, publish a paper,
or even make press releases and organize
a `cerimonius' seminar with prominent people
sitting in the first rows); or if it is worth continuing an experiment;
if it is better to build another one; or perhaps
to invest in new technologies; or even to plan
a future accelerator; and so on. In all cases,
*rational decisions* require to balance the *utilities*
resulting from different scenarios, weighted by how probable you consider
them. Using p-values, or something similar, as if they were
probabilities can lead to very bad mistakes.^{12}

Giulio D'Agostini 2012-01-02