Probability of infected,
in the light of the test result and of other relevant
information
Having seen the limitations of rough
reasoning in evaluating the probabilities of interest,
let us now start using consistently the rules
of probability theory. We begin focusing on the probability
of infected or not infected, given the test results
and the performances of the test.
We shall move to predict the number of positives in a sample
of tested individuals starting from Sec. .
Subsections