Subjective probability and Bayes' theorem

- Orig inal abstract of the ``primer''
- Introduction to the ``primer''
- Probability
- What is probability?
- Subjective definition of probability
- Rules of probability
- Subjective probability and ``objective'' description of the physical world

- Conditional probability and Bayes' theorem
- Dependence of the probability on the state of information
- Conditional probability
- Bayes' theorem
- Conventional use of Bayes' theorem
- Bayesian statistics: learning by experience

- Hypothesis test (discrete case)
- Choice of the initial probabilities (discrete case)

Giulio D'Agostini 2003-05-15