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Inferring the success parameter p of a binomial model
from small samples affected by background

G. D'Agostini

Abstract:

The problem of inferring the binomial parameter p from x successes obtained in n trials is reviewed and extended to take into account the presence of background, that can affect the data in two ways: a) fake successes are due to a background modeled as a Poisson process of known intensity; b) fake trials are due to a background modeled as a Poisson process of known intensity, each trial being characterized by a known success probability pb.

Reference to this paper: physics/0412069

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Giulio D'Agostini 2004-12-13