[url]http://roma1.infn.it/ dagos
[aff1]Università “La Sapienza” and INFN, Roma, Italia
[cor1]Corresponding author: giulio.dagostini@roma1.infn.it
Probability, Propensity and Probability of Propensities
(and of Probabilities)
Abstract:
The process of doing Science in condition of
uncertainty is illustrated with a toy experiment
in which the inferential and the forecasting aspects
are both present. The fundamental aspects of probabilistic
reasoning, also relevant in real life applications,
arise quite naturally and the resulting discussion
among non-ideologized, free-minded people offers an opportunity
for clarifications.
“I am a Bayesian in data analysis,
a frequentist in Physics”
(A PhD student in Rome, 2011)
“You see, a question has arisen,
about which we cannot come to an agreement,
probably because we have read too many books”
(Brecht's Galileo)
“The theory of probabilities is basically
just common sense reduced to calculus”
(Laplace)
