Preprint gr-qc/0304096

Applied to the Explorer-Nautilus 2001 Coincidence Data

**
P. Astone,^{1}
G. D'Agostini,^{1} S. D'Antonio^{2}
1) INFN and
University of Rome ``La Sapienza'', Rome, Italy
2) INFN and
University of Rome ``Tor Vergata'', Rome, Italy
(Presented by P. Astone)**

Bayesian reasoning is applied to the data by the ROG
Collaboration, in which gravitational wave (g.w.) signals are searched for
in a coincidence experiment between Explorer and Nautilus.
The use of Bayesian reasoning allows,
under well defined hypotheses, even tiny pieces of evidence in favor
of each model to be extracted from the data. The combination
of the data of several experiments can therefore be performed
in an optimal and efficient way.
Some models for Galactic sources are considered and, within
each model, the experimental result is summarized with the
likelihood rescaled to the insensitivity limit value (*R* function'').
The model comparison result is given in
in terms of Bayes factors, which quantify how the ratio of beliefs about
two alternative models are modified by the experimental observation.

**Reference** to this paper: *Class. Quant. Grav.* **20** (2003) 769.

**Printable versions and related topics** at this URL.

**Note added** (December 2004): as stated in this paper
(footnote 9),
**this paper should be taken more for its methodological contents
than for the physical outcome**.

- Introduction
- Experimental data
- P-value analysis of the `statistical significance' of the data
- P-value based on the overall number of events
- P-value based on the bin presenting the highest excess
- P-value based on the argument that the highest excess could have shown up everywhere in the time distribution
- Why not to use p-values

- The Bayesian way out: how to use of experimental data
to update the credibility of hypotheses
- Models for Galactic sources of gravitational waves
- Relative belief updating factor for a given model
- Model comparison taking into account the a priori possible values of the model parameters

- Conclusion and discussion
- Acknowledgments
- Bibliography
- About this document ...

Giulio D'Agostini 2005-01-09