- Uncertainty in physics and the usual methods of handling it
- Uncertainty in physics
- True value, error and uncertainty
- Sources of measurement uncertainty
- Usual handling of measurement uncertainties
- Probability of observables versus probability of true values
- Probability of the causes
- Unsuitability of confidence intervals
- Misunderstandings caused by the standard paradigm of hypothesis tests
- Statistical significance versus probability of hypotheses

- A probabilistic theory of measurement uncertainty
- Where to restart from?
- Concepts of probability
- Subjective probability
- Learning from observations: the `problem of induction'
- Beyond Popper's falsification scheme
- From the probability of the effects to the probability of the causes
- Bayes' theorem for uncertain quantities: derivation from a physicist's point of view
- Afraid of `prejudices'? Inevitability of principle and frequent practical irrelevance of the priors
- Recovering standard methods and short-cuts to Bayesian reasoning
- Evaluation of uncertainty: general scheme

Giulio D'Agostini 2003-05-15