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Uncertainty in physics and
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Bayesian Reasoning in High
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Introduction
Contents
Subjective probability in Physics? Scientific reasoning in conditions of uncertainty
Subsections
Uncertainty in physics and the usual methods of handling it
Uncertainty in physics
True value, error and uncertainty
Sources of measurement uncertainty
Usual handling of measurement uncertainties
Probability of observables versus probability of true values
Probability of the causes
Unsuitability of confidence intervals
Misunderstandings caused by the standard paradigm of hypothesis tests
Statistical significance versus probability of hypotheses
A probabilistic theory of measurement uncertainty
Where to restart from?
Concepts of probability
Subjective probability
Learning from observations: the `problem of induction'
Beyond Popper's falsification scheme
From the probability of the effects to the probability of the causes
Bayes' theorem for uncertain quantities: derivation from a physicist's point of view
Afraid of `prejudices'? Inevitability of principle and frequent practical irrelevance of the priors
Recovering standard methods and short-cuts to Bayesian reasoning
Evaluation of uncertainty: general scheme
Direct measurement in the absence of systematic errors
Indirect measurements
Systematic errors
Approximate methods
Giulio D'Agostini 2003-05-15
