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Appendix on probability and
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Bayesian Reasoning in High
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Unfolding an experimental distribution
Contents
Other comments, examples and applications
Subsections
Appendix on probability and inference
Unifying role of subjective approach
Frequentists and combinatorial evaluation of probability
Interpretation of conditional probability
Are the beliefs in contradiction to the perceived objectivity of physics?
Biased Bayesian estimators and Monte Carlo checks of Bayesian procedures
Frequentistic coverage
Bayesian networks
Why do frequentistic hypothesis tests `often work'?
Frequentists and Bayesian `sects'
Bayesian versus frequentistic methods
Orthodox teacher versus sharp student - a dialogue by Gabor
Subjective or objective Bayesian theory?
Bayes' theorem is not all
Solution to some problems
AIDS test
Gold/silver ring problem
Further HEP applications
Poisson model: dependence on priors, combination of results and systematic effects
Dependence on priors
Combination of results from similar experiments
Combination of results: general case
Including systematic effects
Is there a signal?
Signal and background: a
Mathematica
example
Unbiased results
Uniform prior and fictitious quantities
Constraining the mass of a hypothetical new particle: analysis strategy on a toy model
The rules of the game
Analysis of experiment
Naïve procedure
Correct procedure
Interpretation of the results
Outside the sensitivity region
Including other experiments
Giulio D'Agostini 2003-05-15