[ Bayesian reasoning and its application to physics measurements ]

(For most material in Italian, also concerning probability and statistics, see here)

"Bayesian reasoning in data analysis - A critical introduction", World Scientific Publishing 2003 (soft cover 2013)
[details]

  "Così è... probabilmente. Il saggio, l'ingenuo e la signorina Bayes", with Dino Esposito (in Italian), December 2013 (PoD). 
  [indice]
Recensione sul sito Scienza per Tutti
[ Per le omonime conferenze divulgative a Frascati e a Roma 3 vedi qui ]
 
  "L'improbabile mondo del Mago di Odds", with Gianluca Testa (in Italian), June 2016 (PoD)
  [copertina, quarta di copertina e indice]
Recensione sul sito Scienza per Tutti

• "What is the probability that a vaccinated person is shielded from Covid-19?
  A Bayesian MCMC based reanalysis of published data with emphasis on what should be reported as 'efficacy' " (with Alfredo Esposito)
  
  • arXiv:2102.11022 [stat.AP]
    (Version v3 of 6 Sep 2021 contains the new subsection 6.1)
  • Local copy: 2102.11022.pdf
  • Browsable version — conversion by latex2html 'not perfect' (and that of version v3 is even worst, missing completely the figures.)
  • Good save us from the bloggers!
    • The post (2021/03/10) (screenshot, in the case it will not be accessible in the future).
    • It is a well known fact that ignorance, arrogance and sloppy thinking go often together.
    • If you want to form your idea about a scientific paper, please take your time to read it carefully, provided you have the scientific background to understand it.

• "Ratio of counts vs ratio of rates in Poisson processes", arXiv:2012.04455 [stat.ME]
  • R/JAGS code (Appendix B): B1.R, B2.R, B3.R, B4.R, B5.R, B6.R.
  • Local copy: 2012.04455.pdf
  • Browsable version (conversion by latex2html 'not perfect').

• "Inferring vaccine efficacies and their uncertainties. A simple model implemented in JAGS/rjags" (with Alfredo Esposito)
  (first release 19 November 2020)
  • vaccini.pdf (slightly updated version, 25 November 2020)
  • browsable version (conversion by latex2html 'not perfect')
  • Slides for a webinar (November 26, 2020)
  • R script (calling JAGS via rjags): infer_efficiency_two.R
  • Info concerning R, JAGS and rjags
  • Pfizer official publication, December 10:
    local copy (pdf)
    → "95% credible interval: 90.3% to 97.6%" (practically coincident with ours)
    (Come viene riportato il credible interval da un quotidiano italiano: screenshot )
  The work has been finally posted on the arXiv as arXiv:2102.11022 [stat.AP] (see above).

• "Checking individuals and sampling populations with imperfect tests" (with Alfredo Esposito), arXiv:2009.04843 [q-bio.PE].
  (Besides the specific application, it contains general ideas about inference and prediction, statistics and systematic contribution to the uncertainty, role of priors, and so on)
  • front page and contents (pdf, 3 pages)
  • local copy (pdf, 113 pages): 2009.04843.pdf
  • browsable version (conversion by latex2html 'not perfect')
  • R and Jags code (Appendix B): B1.R, B2.R, B3.R, B4.R, B5.R, B6.R, B7.R, B8.R, B9.bug, B10.R, B11.R, B12.R, B13.R, B14.R.

• "The Gauss' Bayes Factor", arXiv:2003.10878 [math.HO]
  
  • Local copy: 2003.10878.pdf
  • Browsable version — conversion by latex2html 'not perfect'.
  About the Gauss derivation of the Gaussian:
  • original, from INTERNET ARCHIVE: p. 212, end of article 177;
  • reworded in modern notation, with comments: gaussiana_Gauss.pdf (from Ref. [9] cited in the paper).
  [Note also the beginning of article 178, in which Gauss comments about the "defectus" of the "formula" just found ("formula nostra").
  But, as he remarks at the end of the paragraph, besides the fact that the "formula" goes rapidly to zero, when the errors become very large,
  "... ipsos errorum limites obsoluto rigore assignare, rei natura numquam permittet". ]

• "On a curious bias arising when the sqrt(χ²/ν) scaling prescription is first applied to a sub-sample of the individual results", arXiv:2001.07562 [physics.data-an]
  (Browsable version -- conversion by latex2html 'not perfect')

• "Sceptical combination of experimental results using JAGS/rjags with application to the K^± mass determination", arXiv:2001.03466 [physics.data-an]
  (Browsable version -- conversion by latex2html 'not perfect')

• "P-values: Meaning, misconceptions and dangers, but also their practical utility if used cum grano salis",
  invited talk at itENBIS and INRIM Joint Workshop "MSMM 2019 — Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Metrology", Torino, 30-31 May2019.
    A related, well done video by Veritasium
  • Is Most Published Research Wrong?: www.youtube.com/watch?v=42QuXLucH3Q

• "Talking about Probability, Inference and Decisions. Part 1: The Witches of Bayes",
  with Noemi Cifani and Alba Gilardi (in Italian), arXiv:1802.10432 [math.HO]
  Per ulteriore informazione sul casus belli vedi qui (→ Le streghe di Bayes)).
  Recensione di Scienza per Tutti (LNF)

• "More lessons from the six box toy experiment", arXiv:1701.01143
  • Files of the sequences of Appendix A:
    • seq_B0.txt
    • seq_B1.txt
    • seq_B2.txt
  • To load the files in a R session: seq.B0 = as.vector( read.csv("seq_B0.txt")$x ) ; etc.

• "Basic probabilistic issues in the Sciences and in Forensics (hopefully) clarified by a Toy Experiment modelled by a Bayesian Network"
  Workshop on Bayesian Networks and Argumentation in Evidence Analysis, 26-29 September 2016, Cambridge, UK. Slides of the presentation (1.1MB).
  Video available at the INI website.

• "Probability, Propensity and Probability of Propensities (and of Probabilities)"
  Invited talk at MaxEnt 2016
  arXiv:1612.05292 and INI preprint ni16052 (FOS Program) of the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences,
  AIP Conference Proceedings 1853, 030001 (2017)
  (Browsable version -- conversion by latex2html 'not perfect')
  • First presentation on the subject at the Garching's Bayes Forum
  • Video of the “pratical session” (in Italian) mentioned in the paper, (Così è... probabilmente)
  • An interesting article on Probability theory in Quantum Mechanics by L. E. Ballentine, found weeks later the present paper was already submitted:
    → compare Section VI.a on double slit experiment(*) with Footnote 19 of the present paper.
    [(*) For an interesting, very well done, video by Veritasium on the single photon double slit experiment see here]

• "The Waves and the Sigmas (To Say Nothing of the 750 GeV Mirage)"
  Paper based on the invited talk at MaxEnt 2016, arXiv:1609.01668, pdf (511k),
  INI preprint ni16046 (FOS Program) of the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences.
  
  
  • browsable version
  • R script: p_value_Vs_BF.R
  • For the Hugin Bayesian network mentioned in footnote 32 see here.
  • Betting against the 750 Mev mirage
  • Related links/resources:
    • Is Most Published Research Wrong?: YouTube by Veritasium (very well done!);
    • I Fooled Millions Into Thinking Chocolate Helps Weight Loss. Here's How, John Bohannon, GIZMODO, 27 May 2015.
    • SYSY bettings:
      • Copenhagen bet (Quanta Magazine, August 22, 2016);
      • HASCO 2014 bets (Summer school details).
    • BBC Horizon Inside CERN (August 10, 2016): a very interesting documentary on CERN and on the expextations related to the 750 GeV 'peak', ending with the 5 August anouncement that it was indeed a fluke.
      (Unfortunatly the video is no longer available, however the link is left, so that interested people might find ways to access it.)
      → Available at Vimeo.com (February 2018)
  • On misunderstanding (and cheating) based on p-values, plus p-hacking etc., see also here, and in particular in the additional related links, in which you will learn that it is not just a question of journalists and laypeople misunderstanding p-values  
    (see in particular what a famous book selling theorist writes about "5-sigma reliability", showing total confusion)
     
  • But someone still insists that “Discoveries have 5 sigmas” because
    “Quando una scoperta viene annunciata, ogni dubbio deve essere stato fugato”  
    [By the way, you might be interested in the bet raised in footnote 31 of arXiv:1609.01668]

• School on Bayesian Analysis in Physics and Astronomy in Stellenbosch, South Africa, November 2013:
  → see dedicated web page

• "Probabilistic Reasoning in Frontier Physics", lecture at HASCO Summer School 2013 (slides available at indico).

• "Introducing Bayesian Reasoning in Measurements with a Toy Experiment"
  Tutorial at the 2015 IEEE I2MTC Conference (Pisa, Italy, 11 May 2015): Slides (pdf, 2.0M).

• "Learning about probabilistic inference and forecasting by playing with multivariate normal distributions (with examples in R)"
  arXiv:1504.02065: pdf (3.3M).

• "Bertrand 'paradox' reloaded (with details on transformations of variables, an introduction to Monte Carlo simulation and an inferential variation of the problem)",
  arXiv:1504.01361: local pdf (4.9M) "without rotations" (the original arXiv pdf has two rotated pages, a curious effect that disappears printing the file... even on file − ??)
  • Android app to generate the chords with the six methods described in the paper: Bertrand.apk (screenshot − ten chords each method)

• "Probability, propensity and probability of propensities", talk given at the Garching's Bayes Forum, February 2013 (slides of the presentation in the Forum web page).
  • This work has been presented a few other times alsewhere, and finally turned into a paper in occasion of MaxEnt16 and of the visit to the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences (see above).
    • Is Most Published Research Wrong?: YouTube by Veritasium (very well done!);
    • I Fooled Millions Into Thinking Chocolate Helps Weight Loss. Here's How, John Bohannon, GIZMODO, 27 May 2015.
    • Higgs boson bettings:
      • Copenhagen bet (Quanta Magazine, August 22, 2016);
      • HASCO 2014 bets (Summer school details).
    • BBC Horizon Inside CERN (August 10, 2016): a very interesting documentary on CERN and on the expextations related to the 750 GeV 'peak', ending with the 5 August anouncement that it was indeed a fluke.
      (Unfortunatly the video is no longer available, however the link is left, so that interested people might find ways to access it.)
      → Available at Vimeo.com (February 2018)
  • On misunderstanding (and cheating) based on p-values, plus p-hacking etc., see also here
  • But someone still insists that “Discoveries have 5 sigmas” because “Quando una scoperta viene annunciata, ogni dubbio deve essere stato fugato”  
    [By the way, you might be interested in the bet raised in footnote 31 of arXiv:1609.01668]

• "Introducing Bayesian Reasoning in Measurements with a Toy Experiment"
  Tutorial at the 2015 IEEE I2MTC Conference (Pisa, Italy, 11 May 2015): Slides (pdf, 2.0M).

• "Learning about probabilistic inference and forecasting by playing with multivariate normal distributions (with examples in R)"
  arXiv:1504.02065: pdf (3.3M).

• "Bertrand 'paradox' reloaded (with details on transformations of variables, an introduction to Monte Carlo simulation and an inferential variation of the problem)",
  arXiv:1504.01361: local pdf (4.9M) "without rotations" (the original arXiv pdf has two rotated pages, a curious effect that disappears printing the file... even on file − ??)
  • Android app to generate the chords with the six methods described in the paper: Bertrand.apk (screenshot − ten chords each method)

• School on Bayesian Analysis in Physics and Astronomy in Stellenbosch, South Africa, November 2013:
  → see dedicated web page

• "Probabilistic Reasoning in Frontier Physics", lecture at HASCO Summer School 2013 (slides available at indico).

• "Judgement Leanings, a graphical way to hopefully improve the perception and the communication of the `weights of evidence' and of the 'intensities of beliefs", poster at PESFoG2012: Slides (110k).

• "Probably a discovery: Bad mathematics means rough scientific communication", arXiv:1112.3620v2: pdf (383k) [html version, containing also additional related links].
  More links on p-values (added from June 2015):
  • "p-hacking, or cheating on a p-value", by Arthur Charpentier: post on r-bloggers, June 2015;
  • Psychology Journal Bans Significance Testing;
  • "Scientific method: Statistical errors − P values, the 'gold standard' of statistical validity, are not as reliable as many scientists assume", by Regina Nuzzo: Nature, February 2014.
  • Scoperte annunciate a colpi di 'sigma' (In Italian, including video).
  • More recent, related paper: The Waves and the Sigmas (To Say Nothing of the 750 GeV Mirage)

• "Reti Bayesiane: da modelli di conoscenza a strumenti inferenziali e decisionali" (con Serena Cenatiempo e Aldo Vannelli), Notiziario Tecnico di Telecom Italia, 2010, Numero 3, pp 16-25 (copia locale, pdf, 836k).

• "Improved iterative Bayesian unfolding", arXiv:1010.0632v1: ps.gz (384k), pdf (321k).
  • Old version
  • Slides presented at the Alliance Workshop on Unfolding and Data Correction, Hamburg, Germany, 27-28 May 2010.
  • Slides presented at the Helmholtz School “Advanced Topics in Statistics”, Göttingen, 17-20 October 2010 (with references to several topics discussed there, most of them not strictly related to unfolding).
  • R code: unf2_R.tgz (12k).
  • C, C++, Root versions? They are warmly welcome.
  • A curious introduction on Youtube.

• "On the Peirce's balancing reasons rule failure in his "large bag of beans" example", arXiv:1003.3659v1: ps.gz (113k), pdf (148k).

• "A defense of Columbo (and of the use of Bayesian inference in forensics): A multilevel introduction to probabilistic reasoning", arXiv:1003.2086v2: ps.gz (3.4M), pdf (771k) and html (the automatic translation from latex is quite poor).
  • Hugin Bayesian network of the toy model of the paper: box_testimony.oobn.
  • Related links:
    • "A formula for justice", by A. Saini The Guardian, 2 October 2011
    • Bayes and the Law

• "L'inferenza probabilistica: ruolo nelle scienze sperimentali e suggerimenti per il suo insegnamento" (Probabilistic inference: role in the experimental sciences and suggestion for its teaching) invited contribution to the Dossier Statistica, TRECCANI Scuola, February 2010.
  Copia locale [nel 2017 mi sono accorto che i link del sito Treccani non erano più validi, e anche quello che trovavano ancora i motori di ricerca puntava nel 'vuoto'.

• "On the so-called Boy or Girl Paradox", arXiv:1001.0708v1: ps.gz (93K) and pdf (150K).

• Sleeping Beauty problem:
  • play the Sleeping Beauty game;
  • note in preparation:

• "About the proof of the so called exact classical confidence intervals. Where is the trick?", physics/0605140v2: ps.gz (73K) and pdf (125K).

• "Dalle osservazioni alle ipotesi scientifiche" (From the observations to the scientific hypotheses), in Italian: invited contribution to TRECCANI Scuola, Aprile 2006.
  Versione locale.

• "Fits, and especially linear fits, with errors on both axes, extra variance of the data points and other complications", physics/0511182: ps.gz (191K), pdf (259K) and HTML.

• The Fermi's Bayes Theorem

• “C'è statistica e statistica”, risposta ad una domanda su “statistica gaussiana e statistica bayesiana” rivolta a Scienza per tutti dei Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati, pubblicata su Scaffali, 30 marzo 2005 (pdf, 45kB; copia locale).

• "Telling the truth with statistics". Lectures for the CERN Academic Training, 21-25 February 2005.
  • Pdf files of transparancies: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
  • Transparencies (as well as videos) also available at the CERN Document Server.
  • Scanned slides.
  • The ultimate confidence intervals calculator [see lecture 2, p.24 (slide 95)].
    • Also available as Android app: Ultimate_CI_Calculator.apk (February 2015).
  (The title of lectures, commented in the first lecture, was proposed by the organisers.)

• "From Observations to Hypotheses: Probabilistic Reasoning Versus Falsificationism and its Statistical Variations". Invited talk at the 2004 Vulcano Workshop on Frontier Objects in Astrophysics and Particle Physics, Vulcano (Italy) May 24-29, 2004, physics/0412148v2: ps.gz (111k) or pdf (259k) file; HTML version.

• "Inferring the success parameter p of a binomial model from small samples affected by background", physics/0412069: ps.gz (1.1M) or pdf (403k) file; HTML version.

• "Asymmetric uncertainties: sources, treatment and possible dangers", physics/0403086: ps.gz (357k) or pdf (236k) file; HTML version.
  

• "Bayesian inference in processing experimental data: principles and basic applications", invited paper for Reports on Progress in Physics [66 (2003)1383]
  Preprint: physics/0304102: ps.gz (281k), pdf (473k), dvju (304k); HTML version.
  

  The same issue of RPP contains also a review by Volker Dose on "Bayesian inference in physics: case studies": 66 (2003)1421 (many related publications of Dose and collaborators on data analysis can be found in the IPP Bayesian Data Analysis Group web page).

• "Bayesian model comparison applied to the Explorer-Nautilus 2001 coincidence data", with Pia Astone and Sabrina D'Antonio, gr-qc/0304096: ps.gz (164k), pdf (160k) and html (160k) versions. Published in Class. Quant. Grav. 20 (2003) 769.
  Note added (December 2004): as stated in my contribution to Vulcano04 (footnote 9), this paper should be taken more for its methodological contents than for the physical outcome.

• "Search for correlation between GRB's detected by BeppoSAX and gravitational wave detectors EXPLORER and NAUTILUS", astro-ph/0206431 (with Explorer/Nautilus and BeppoSAX Collaborations). Published in Phys Rev D66 (2002) 102002.

• "Minimum bias legacy of search results", Seventh Topical Seminar on "The legacy of LEP and SLC", Siena, Italy, 8-11 October 2001. hep-ph/0201070: ps.gz (35k) or PDF (143k) file. Nucl Phys Proc Suppl 109 (2002) 148-152.

• "Inference of rho and eta of the CKM matrix - A simplified, intuitive approach" (based on a series of lectures given at the VI LNF Spring School "Bruno Touscheck", Frascati, Italy, May 2001, hep-ph/0107067): ps.gz (1.1MB) or PDF (1.6MB) file.
  html version

• "2000 CKM-Triangle Analysis: A critical review with updated experimental inputs and theoretical parameters" (with M. Ciuchini, E. Franco, V. Lubicz, G. Martinelli, F. Parodi, P. Roudeau A. Stocchi) hep-ph/0012308: ps.gz (486k) or PDF (1.2MB) file.
  Published in JHEP 0107 (2001) 013 and highly cited.
  I had some fun with referees also with this paper:
  • Referee report: ps file and pdf file
  • Our reply
  • Finally, the paper was accepted "with the benefit of the doubt": ... speachless....
  For more info and plots about the Unitary Triangle analysis, see www.UTfit.org.

• ``Role and meaning of subjective probability: some comments on common misconceptions'', talk at the XXth International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering, July 8-13,2000, Gif sur Yvette (Paris), France: postscript file or PDF file (also at arXiv: physics/0010064). AIP Conference Proceedings (Melville) Vol. 568 (2001) 23-30.

• ``Teaching Bayesian statistics in the scientific curricula'', The ISBA Newletter (later renamed 'bulletin'), Vol. 7, No. 1 (March 2000) pp. 18-19, (local txt file).

• ``Uncertainties due to imperfect knowledge of systematic effects: general considerations and approximate formulae'' (with Mirko Raso), CERN-EP/2000-026, February 2000, hep-ex/0002056: postscript file or PDF file.
  A reduced version of this paper has become a part of Chapter 12 of Bayesian reasoning in data analysis.

• Workshop on `Confidence Limits' at CERN, Jan. 17-18, 2000: CERN document server.
  • Paper based on the invited talk Confidence limits: what is the problem? Is there the solution? (eprint hep-ex/0002055): postscript file or PDF file (Mathematica file containing the Newton problem and the box example, see also the errata below!).
  • Contributed paper with G. Degrassi: Constraining the Higgs boson mass through the combination of direct search and precision measurement result (an update of our 1999 EPJ paper): postscript file or PDF file (also hep-ph/0001269).
  • Short contribution during the pannel and discussion session: Quantum mechanics and probability (with comments on confidence intervals): slides
  • "Conclusions" of the Workshop.
  • Proceedings published as CERN Report 2000-005.
  • 20/08/2001: errata about the numbers of the "original" problem to Newton.

• ``Sceptical combination of experimental results: General considerations and application to epsilon-prime/epsilon", CERN-EP/99-139, October 1999, hep-ex/9910036: postscript file or PDF file. This paper will remain unpublished. People interested in sociology of science might want to give a look at 1st referee report, my replay, 2nd referee report, 2nd replay and final verdict.
  This paper, with little changes, has become Chapter 11 of Bayesian reasoning in data analysis. Please refer to that book for citations.

• ``Inferring the intensity of Poisson processes at limit of detector sensitivity (with a case study on gravitational wave burst search)" (with Pia Astone, special acknowledgements to Maddalena...), CERN-EP/99-126, August 1999, hep-ex/9909047: postscript file or PDF file.
  The substance of this paper has become a part of Chapter 13 of Bayesian reasoning in data analysis.

• "Teaching statistics in the physics curriculum. Unifying and clarifying role of subjective probability", invited contribution to the special theme issue of the American Journal of Physics on Thermal and Statistical Physics (H. Gould and J. Tobochnik eds.):
  • Preprint Roma1-1108 (July 1999) and LANL physics/9908014 (August 1999): postscript file or PDF file.
  • Published in AJP 67, issue 12 (1999) 1260-1268;

• "Bayesian reasoning in high energy physics. Principles and applications",
  CERN Yellow Report 99-03, July 1999 (vi + 175 pages).
  • html version (latex2html translation not really perfect...)
  • ps/pdf version (by parts):
    • Introduction + contents (8 pages): ps file, PDF file;
    • Part I - Subjective probability in Physics? Scientific reasoning in conditions of uncertainty (36 pages): ps file, PDF file;
    • Part II - Updated version of "Bayesian primer" (78 pages): ps file, PDF file;
    • Part III - Other comments, examples and applications (44 pages): ps file, PDF file;
    • Concluding matter + bibliography (15 pages): ps file, PDF file;
  (Also available at CERN Document Server).
  For FAQ's and clarifications see here (all comments are welcome!).
  A reviewed and extended version of the report has been published in 2003 by World Scientific Publishing.

• ``Overcoming prior anxiety'', invited contribution to the monographic issue of the Revista de la Real Academia de Ciencias on Bayesian Methods in the Sciences (J.M. Bernardo ed.), Año 1999, Vol. 93, Número 3; local PDF file (also available as physics/9906048).

• Tutorial at Los Alamos Laboratory (March 1-3, 1999): for writeup of matter concerning lessons see report based on CERN lectures.
  The "six boxes" example, of which the viewgraphs are available in pdf format at LNAL, has been included in the AJP paper ("Teaching statistics ..."), see above in this list.

• ``Constraints on the Higgs Boson Mass from Direct Searches and Precision Measurements'' (with G. Degrassi), DFPD-99/TH/02, February 1999, hep-ph/9902226, published in Eur. Phys. J. C10 (1999) 663-675: local postscript file or PDF file of preprint.
  You might be interested in what a `first rate' frequentist referee would think about the paper: see referee report.
  Updated analysis as contribution to the Workshop on `Confidence limits' (see above): hep-ph/0001269.

• "Observation of a tossed coin remaining vertical" (15 Nov 1998), plus other oddities.

• "Bayesian Reasoning versus Conventional Statistics in High Energy Physics", invited talk at the XVIII International Workshop on Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods (Maxent98): postscript file or PDF file (also at Los Alamos xxx archive: physics/9811046). html version at Caltech

• "Tutorial on measurement uncertainty" at EC Summer School: Bayesian Signal Processing, Cambridge, July 1998. (No proceedings; note in preparation with some original material only presented there).

• "Jeffreys Priors versus Experienced Physicist Priors - Arguments against Objective Bayesian Theory",
  contributed paper to "Valencia 6" (1998): postscript file or PDF file (also at physics/9811045).

• ``Bayesian Reasoning in High Energy Physics: Principles and Applications'',
  Academic Training at CERN (25-29 May 1998)
  Video and slides at the CERN Document Server
  (Like the staircases at Hogwarts School, CERN web sites like to move: if you find this link brocken, please help yourself using your preferred search engine)

• ``Measurements errors and measurement uncertainty - critical review and proposals for teaching'', Internal Report n. 1094, Phys. Dept., May 1998: postscript file or PDF file, in italian (86 pages):
  this is my manifesto concerning the use of subjective probability for the evaluation of uncertainty in measurement as well as for a teaching method of physics laboratory based on the Bayesian motto "Learning by Experience".

• ``A theory of measurement uncertainty based on conditional probability''
  ROME1-1079-1996, Nov 1996, physics/9611016 (presented at JSM 1996 at Chicago, IL).

• ``Probability and Measurement Uncertainty in Physics - a Bayesian Primer''
  DESY-95-242, Roma1 N. 1070, hep-ph/9512295 (original postscript file also in DESY).
  An updated version is contained in the CERN Yellow Report 99-03 (see above).
  A rivised version is now included in Bayesian Reasoning

  Several ideas of this paper have been applied in the following notes by Mirko Raso (including Bayesian unfolding and treatment of correlations due to systematics):

  • ZEUS-96-132, "Measurement of F₂ep from the 1995 shifted vertex data": ps and pdf file.
  • ZEUS-98-074, "An update of the F₂ep using the 1995 shifted vertex data": ps and pdf file; html version.
  • ZEUS-98-075, "A measurement of the sigma_ep for Q² < 0.3 GeV², as a by product of the F₂ep measurement": ps and pdf file; html version.

• Bayesian unfolding:
  • INSPIRE entry;
  • Preprint: DESY 94-099, June 1994 (local file) based on ZEUS-Note 93-127;
  • Paper: Nucl. Instr. and Meth. in Phys. Res. A362 (1995) 487;
  • Distribution file with FORTRAN code (62k);
  • Comments added: pdf file (65k);
  • Speeding up the code: comments by Alex Grossheim (03/06/03);
  • For an implementation in Root, see e.g. RooUnfold (there migh be others).
  • For a Python package see PyUnfold (code in github).
  →Improved version
  A curious introduction on Youtube.

• ZEUS Note (1995) advertising ISO Guide: postscript file; pdf file

• ``On the use of the covariance matrix to fit correlated data'',
  INSPIRE entry, including the paper in pdf format (local copy)
  Preprint: DESY-93-175, December 1993,
  Nucl. Instr. and Meth. in Phys. Res. A346 (1994) 306.
  [Some authors call the effect described in the paper "D'Agostini bias"]

• ``Quark-gluon jet separation in the photoproduction region with a neural network algorithm'' (with G. Barbagli and D. Monaldi), Roma1-992, Feb. 1992; Proc. of Workshop on Physics at HERA, Hamburg, Germany, October 29-30, 1991;

• "Limits on the electron compositeness from the Bhabha scattering at PEP and PETRA".
  25th Rencontre de Moriond on Electroweak Interactions and Unified Theories, Les Arcs, France, Mar 4-11, 1990
  • Conference paper (local copy);
  • Nota interna Roma1 Nr. 951, giugno 1990 (local copy) — also DESY 90-93.

• "Determination of alpha_s and sin^2theta(W) from the R measurements at PEP and PETRA", 22th Rencontre de Moriond, Les Arcs, France, Mar 15-21 1997, Editions Frontières, pp. 325-336.

• "Determination of α_s and the Z⁰" mass from measurements of the total hadronic cross-section in e⁺e^- annihilation (with W. de Boer and G. Grindhammer),
  Phys.Lett.B 229 (1989) 160-168.

• "Determination of alpha_s and sin^2theta(W) from measurements of the total hadronic cross section in e+e- annihilation" (with CELLO Collaboration),
  Phys. Lett. 183B (1987) 400.

Back to G.D'Agostini Home Page