- Principles and Applications -

**
Giulio D'Agostini
Dip. di Fisica Università ``La Sapienza'' and INFN, Roma, Italy**

An

- Contents

- Subjective probability in Physics? Scientific reasoning in
conditions of uncertainty
- Uncertainty in physics and the usual methods of handling it
- Uncertainty in physics
- True value, error and uncertainty
- Sources of measurement uncertainty
- Usual handling of measurement uncertainties
- Probability of observables versus probability of true values
- Probability of the causes
- Unsuitability of confidence intervals
- Misunderstandings caused by the standard paradigm of hypothesis tests
- Statistical significance versus probability of hypotheses

- A probabilistic theory of measurement uncertainty
- Where to restart from?
- Concepts of probability
- Subjective probability
- Learning from observations: the `problem of induction'
- Beyond Popper's falsification scheme
- From the probability of the effects to the probability of the causes
- Bayes' theorem for uncertain quantities: derivation from a physicist's point of view
- Afraid of `prejudices'? Inevitability of principle and frequent practical irrelevance of the priors
- Recovering standard methods and short-cuts to Bayesian reasoning
- Evaluation of uncertainty: general scheme

- Uncertainty in physics and the usual methods of handling it
- ``Bayesian primer''

- slightly reviewed version of the 1995 DESY/Rome report -- Subjective probability and Bayes' theorem
- Distributions (a concise reminder)
- Bayesian inference applied to measurements
- Bypassing the Bayes' theorem for routine applications
- Bayesian unfolding

- Other comments, examples and applications
- Appendix on probability and inference
- Unifying role of subjective approach
- Frequentists and combinatorial evaluation of probability
- Interpretation of conditional probability
- Are the beliefs in contradiction to the perceived objectivity of physics?
- Biased Bayesian estimators and Monte Carlo checks of Bayesian procedures
- Frequentistic coverage
- Bayesian networks
- Why do frequentistic hypothesis tests `often work'?
- Frequentists and Bayesian `sects'
- Solution to some problems

- Further HEP applications

- Appendix on probability and inference
- .

- Bibliography
- About this document ...

Giulio D'Agostini 2003-05-15